***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 -0.4 0.1 1.1 2.4 81.6 77.5 -2.3 -1.2 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.9 2.3 81.7 78.2 -2.8 -1.6 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.1 78.8 75.7 -1.0 0.5 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -4.3 -4.2 -2.2 1.8 72.1 70.1 -6.2 -5.1 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 2.2 76.6 74.0 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -1.5 -1.2 -2.6 2.7 83.5 77.5 -3.7 -2.1 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 -0.7 -0.4 1.0 2.4 82.8 78.8 -2.6 -1.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 -5.5 -5.2 -2.2 2.8 84.2 78.6 -7.6 -6.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 2.2 79.0 75.7 -2.4 -0.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.8 2.6 82.5 77.2 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3 2.4 80.6 75.7 -3.0 -1.7 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 2.7 82.5 77.5 -3.1 -2.3 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -0.8 0.0 -1.9 2.7 82.6 77.5 -3.2 -1.7 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 2.2 80.6 76.4 -2.0 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 1.8 75.4 72.4 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 -0.2 0.2 -1.9 2.4 80.5 75.5 -2.1 -1.1 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.7 0.9 2.2 80.6 77.6 -2.6 -2.0 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -2.5 -2.1 -2.5 2.4 80.2 75.9 -4.9 -3.8 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 2.2 81.4 77.7 -2.7 -1.3 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 -4.9 -4.5 -3.2 2.9 82.4 77.8 -7.1 -6.0 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 2.1 78.6 75.2 -2.9 -0.9 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.6 0.7 2.1 80.3 77.2 -2.8 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 2.2 80.1 77.4 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 2.2 78.7 75.6 -2.9 -1.5 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 2.4 79.9 76.9 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.0 -0.6 -1.7 2.9 85.1 79.0 -2.8 -1.8 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.5 82.2 78.2 -2.1 -0.9 -0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 1.8 72.5 70.2 -3.6 -2.8 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 -3.1 -2.7 -2.7 2.7 82.8 77.8 -5.0 -4.1 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 -0.5 0.0 1.0 2.3 81.5 78.2 -2.7 -1.2 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------