***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 1.1 57.4 59.4 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 54.6 58.3 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.8 52.3 57.7 -2.0 -0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -5.1 -5.8 -3.5 0.8 50.3 57.8 -7.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -4.2 -1.8 -2.9 1.0 52.1 59.2 -3.5 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -2.9 -4.2 1.4 57.4 61.2 -5.2 -3.5 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.5 -0.4 1.1 57.0 59.0 -4.2 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -9.5 -7.2 -4.0 1.3 57.2 60.9 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -3.6 -1.8 -2.5 0.9 51.1 58.4 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -4.1 -1.4 -3.7 1.1 54.3 59.7 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -1.7 -3.3 1.2 53.2 60.3 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 -1.2 -2.4 -3.6 1.4 57.3 60.7 -4.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -1.9 -3.8 1.4 57.7 60.5 -4.5 -2.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.1 -2.7 0.9 52.3 57.5 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -2.9 -2.4 0.7 49.3 57.8 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.5 -3.7 1.3 53.8 60.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 57.6 58.8 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -5.9 -2.9 -4.3 1.1 54.6 59.6 -5.5 -3.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 52.3 57.7 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -4.5 -5.8 -4.9 1.5 60.0 61.2 -9.5 -6.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.4 0.9 54.6 58.3 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -1.7 -0.7 1.0 55.0 58.4 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.1 0.7 51.5 56.9 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.7 -3.1 0.8 50.5 57.5 -3.6 -2.7 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -1.4 -1.5 1.2 57.4 59.9 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -2.2 -3.6 1.6 58.4 61.4 -3.8 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1.2 58.5 59.8 -3.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -2.8 -3.4 -3.5 0.7 48.8 57.4 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -3.2 -4.2 -4.3 1.3 57.2 60.6 -6.0 -5.2 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.7 -0.6 0.9 54.3 58.4 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------