***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 0.7 1.8 2.1 3.3 82.0 78.4 -2.7 -1.3 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 0.2 1.2 1.7 3.0 80.5 77.5 -2.9 -1.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 2.1 3.4 1.9 3.1 81.2 77.4 -0.8 0.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -3.4 -2.9 -0.9 2.8 77.1 73.7 -7.1 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 0.1 1.1 0.3 3.3 80.5 76.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 -0.7 0.1 -1.4 3.7 81.7 78.0 -3.8 -2.1 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 0.3 1.6 1.7 3.0 79.7 76.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -4.2 -3.1 -1.1 3.8 81.5 78.5 -7.9 -6.8 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 0.5 1.7 0.6 3.4 83.2 79.1 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 3.6 81.6 78.7 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 0.0 0.6 0.1 3.6 82.3 78.4 -2.8 -1.3 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 -0.7 0.7 -0.3 3.8 82.8 78.6 -4.3 -2.9 -0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 -0.2 0.8 -0.4 4.0 82.3 79.6 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 0.2 1.3 0.2 3.3 82.2 77.7 -2.3 -1.2 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 -0.1 0.5 0.8 3.0 81.6 76.3 -3.5 -1.6 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 0.3 1.4 -0.4 3.6 82.3 78.1 -2.2 -1.6 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.9 78.0 75.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.3 3.5 80.8 77.2 -5.2 -3.1 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 0.1 1.0 1.7 3.0 81.3 78.3 -2.8 -1.2 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -3.5 -2.6 -2.3 3.6 78.5 75.7 -8.2 -5.4 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.2 80.6 77.8 -3.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 -0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 78.4 75.9 -2.9 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 -0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 83.3 79.1 -2.8 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 3.3 81.1 77.7 -3.0 -1.7 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 0.4 1.1 1.4 3.3 80.4 77.9 -3.0 -1.7 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 -0.4 1.0 -0.5 3.9 83.4 79.0 -3.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.4 80.9 78.1 -3.1 -1.7 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 2.9 77.8 73.9 -4.2 -2.7 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -2.5 -0.9 -1.7 3.7 80.4 77.7 -6.0 -4.7 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 0.4 1.7 1.9 3.1 81.3 78.0 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------