***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 2.2 3.1 4.2 4.2 96.4 93.3 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.1 96.9 94.0 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 3.5 4.6 3.8 3.7 94.6 91.1 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 -2.3 -1.3 0.2 2.8 82.9 80.3 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 1.1 2.4 2.2 3.7 91.9 89.4 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 0.3 2.9 0.8 4.7 98.9 96.4 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.3 96.8 94.0 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -3.3 -1.3 1.6 5.2 99.1 97.4 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 2.2 3.0 2.5 3.8 97.2 93.4 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 1.2 2.5 1.6 4.5 98.2 95.8 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 1.4 2.3 2.3 4.1 96.5 93.9 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 0.3 2.1 2.1 4.8 97.3 95.5 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.7 1.7 4.4 97.0 95.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 2.3 3.2 2.4 3.7 94.6 91.3 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 1.3 2.7 2.4 3.2 92.7 88.5 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 1.6 2.9 1.6 4.0 96.2 92.8 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 1.6 2.8 3.6 4.1 96.3 93.4 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -0.8 0.6 0.7 3.9 94.9 91.7 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.0 96.8 93.8 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -2.4 -1.4 0.5 5.1 96.4 95.3 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 95.5 91.1 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 1.7 2.5 3.7 3.9 95.9 93.2 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.0 97.0 94.1 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 1.3 2.3 2.2 3.7 95.6 91.7 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.9 94.4 91.1 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.9 2.2 5.2 98.1 97.3 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 2.7 3.8 4.2 4.4 96.5 93.7 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 0.6 1.4 0.9 3.0 87.7 83.9 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 -0.9 1.0 0.4 4.6 96.3 94.2 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 96.2 93.5 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------