***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 39.3 32.5 39.2 98.5 50.5 50.8 25.1 32.2 43.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.7 31.9 35.3 93.6 50.0 48.1 24.0 32.0 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 46.9 41.3 39.4 96.5 50.8 49.9 34.0 41.3 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 49.9 42.4 41.1 89.8 46.4 45.4 37.8 46.3 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 49.5 42.7 43.3 91.7 45.2 45.6 36.3 44.2 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 44.2 33.8 39.1 79.7 40.9 39.2 30.9 40.8 49.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 45.3 40.5 35.3 94.4 50.5 48.7 27.8 40.3 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 63.3 57.4 46.0 89.0 42.7 43.4 53.4 57.8 62.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 35.6 29.8 45.1 95.1 48.0 47.9 27.3 30.2 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 46.4 41.5 47.4 93.5 45.7 46.4 35.1 42.3 52.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 45.9 40.5 40.5 90.4 42.7 45.0 35.7 43.6 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 48.3 39.1 39.2 85.0 42.1 41.9 34.3 44.7 55.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 48.8 42.9 39.2 82.9 41.2 40.3 40.0 43.9 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.5 60.5 48.2 99.0 52.1 50.8 49.0 59.9 71.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 33.4 30.6 35.1 75.4 37.3 38.8 29.1 46.1 62.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 46.9 38.8 37.8 85.3 43.2 42.2 28.6 41.2 57.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 40.0 35.3 33.9 92.1 49.4 47.9 31.6 35.3 42.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 44.2 39.4 51.6 95.0 48.3 47.6 30.7 39.8 46.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.5 31.9 36.3 94.7 49.6 48.5 27.0 32.1 51.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 55.6 48.9 58.6 89.4 43.6 44.0 40.1 52.5 63.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 42.2 37.2 42.6 97.2 50.5 49.7 32.6 37.1 47.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.9 34.8 35.5 91.8 48.5 47.3 26.4 36.5 47.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 41.2 35.3 39.1 97.2 49.4 49.7 26.9 35.9 49.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 50.1 48.0 46.8 97.5 51.2 49.8 44.7 47.5 57.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 46.5 37.8 44.9 95.5 48.5 48.6 27.9 38.2 54.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 47.9 38.2 37.0 77.0 37.4 36.9 36.0 42.4 45.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 43.6 36.7 42.9 97.8 50.2 50.2 29.5 36.6 59.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 43.0 35.2 37.1 81.4 42.9 41.4 30.8 38.4 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 73.0 63.2 54.5 93.8 46.7 46.8 54.9 67.8 76.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.2 39.0 36.3 95.2 49.4 49.0 27.6 39.2 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------