***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.8 14.3 10.5 108.4 64.0 51.5 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.6 9.4 101.5 60.5 50.8 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.5 15.3 9.9 100.3 59.7 49.9 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.6 15.8 9.7 92.1 56.6 46.6 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.7 12.9 10.1 92.0 54.9 45.9 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.3 8.8 72.4 50.8 42.9 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.2 9.7 102.0 58.7 51.4 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.5 11.2 10.7 84.1 51.5 42.9 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.6 10.8 93.3 49.4 46.5 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.5 11.2 89.4 50.1 44.8 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.0 9.1 84.1 53.1 43.6 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.1 8.8 78.6 51.0 41.8 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.3 8.9 75.7 50.6 42.6 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.8 11.8 11.6 99.3 57.7 49.9 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.7 8.4 81.3 58.3 44.9 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.4 8.4 78.3 52.4 43.0 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.5 9.3 101.1 62.5 51.7 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.5 12.5 91.7 51.1 45.2 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.3 9.3 100.3 60.8 50.4 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 9.6 14.4 88.9 52.1 44.0 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.6 9.3 10.5 98.3 55.9 48.2 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.2 9.4 101.3 64.0 51.7 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.7 9.6 98.8 60.4 49.9 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.7 9.9 11.2 94.2 53.9 47.4 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.4 13.3 11.6 105.7 61.8 50.2 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.1 8.4 72.1 49.3 41.7 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.5 12.4 11.5 108.1 63.1 51.6 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.7 8.6 81.2 55.8 44.9 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.5 13.7 13.3 91.3 50.9 44.7 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.9 9.7 103.1 59.7 51.1 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------