***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.0 13.2 111.7 57.5 53.5 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.3 11.5 103.0 55.5 51.5 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.1 13.5 114.1 59.7 54.9 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.1 13.1 13.7 106.7 61.1 55.3 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.2 17.3 14.6 112.6 61.7 55.7 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.3 13.9 100.9 54.9 52.8 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.7 11.6 104.2 54.4 51.2 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.1 15.7 109.7 60.6 52.9 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.0 15.4 117.4 65.3 56.2 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.8 16.1 116.0 64.2 54.9 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.1 14.6 13.8 110.1 60.6 54.2 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 13.5 105.3 57.9 52.1 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.7 11.3 13.6 104.1 58.6 53.2 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.1 16.6 16.2 119.1 64.3 57.1 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.1 11.8 87.8 57.7 50.1 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.5 12.9 104.1 59.5 53.7 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.1 11.1 102.6 57.3 51.0 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.5 17.4 118.7 67.4 55.5 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.8 12.0 106.8 57.6 52.7 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.5 19.6 107.7 61.5 53.2 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.7 14.7 118.9 66.7 57.2 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.8 11.4 103.2 58.3 52.1 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.7 13.0 113.3 61.8 55.0 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 16.1 15.9 120.3 67.1 56.7 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.2 15.1 111.0 64.6 54.3 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.9 13.3 100.0 57.0 51.4 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.7 14.3 110.3 60.1 52.9 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 12.5 96.6 59.2 52.8 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 19.9 18.2 115.6 65.0 55.3 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.6 12.0 105.1 56.0 51.8 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------