***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 15.0 12.3 129.6 72.5 59.0 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.8 11.5 131.0 66.8 58.2 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 16.7 12.3 124.1 67.1 56.7 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.7 13.3 121.0 67.4 57.0 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.8 13.3 114.6 64.2 53.3 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.6 12.0 106.2 62.1 51.5 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.0 15.6 11.3 134.0 70.4 59.0 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.3 19.1 13.2 106.6 60.7 51.7 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.4 13.6 114.3 62.2 54.3 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.4 13.7 111.1 62.4 52.8 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.4 12.0 112.9 64.2 53.1 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.1 11.5 104.0 59.9 51.4 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 15.3 11.3 101.0 60.8 50.3 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.6 17.0 14.8 125.2 69.9 57.1 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.4 11.9 104.0 62.4 52.5 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.8 14.4 11.4 109.4 63.0 52.1 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.4 10.9 129.9 70.3 59.1 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.0 14.8 110.8 62.3 52.8 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.3 12.5 11.8 131.1 67.3 58.2 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 16.0 17.0 106.1 59.1 51.8 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.2 13.0 13.0 119.6 66.4 56.3 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.4 14.9 11.5 127.7 66.2 58.7 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.7 12.6 130.9 68.2 58.2 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 17.1 14.1 119.1 68.1 55.1 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 16.2 14.3 123.5 70.4 57.0 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.3 10.9 95.8 58.2 49.8 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 17.4 13.7 130.1 72.1 58.8 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.3 17.0 12.2 112.1 64.1 54.2 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 23.4 15.7 110.1 62.4 52.6 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.8 11.7 130.7 66.6 58.0 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------