***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 1.6 2.4 3.2 36.2 40.1 30.5 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.9 33.7 34.7 27.5 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.6 3.7 39.8 39.0 29.3 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 3.0 5.1 4.3 38.2 35.6 25.9 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.3 45.6 36.3 29.8 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.1 1.5 4.4 37.1 34.9 26.7 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.7 32.5 32.7 27.5 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.4 9.9 6.5 52.6 42.3 31.6 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.7 5.3 48.9 41.7 33.2 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.5 6.5 6.5 53.9 44.4 34.5 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.4 5.6 51.8 44.8 35.0 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.7 5.3 5.4 48.9 39.3 30.4 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.8 5.5 48.1 41.8 32.0 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.8 5.8 5.6 48.5 39.6 33.3 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 0.8 1.4 2.9 26.0 27.3 17.9 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.0 2.8 5.0 47.1 40.9 31.4 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 1.6 2.7 2.7 31.5 32.3 26.2 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 5.7 6.9 54.4 43.5 34.2 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.2 3.4 3.2 36.1 36.0 28.6 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 4.7 6.4 7.5 50.2 40.4 28.8 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.0 4.4 44.3 41.3 32.3 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 1.7 4.2 3.1 33.7 34.8 26.7 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.6 5.4 3.8 41.0 37.7 30.3 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.3 5.6 50.6 41.2 33.8 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 1.5 2.9 4.0 36.3 28.7 24.7 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.5 4.4 4.5 37.8 32.9 24.2 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 1.4 2.2 3.4 35.2 32.6 27.2 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.4 1.8 3.9 34.9 33.4 23.5 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.8 13.7 7.2 53.7 43.6 33.2 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 1.6 1.9 2.9 35.0 36.2 28.5 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------