***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.6 5.2 2.0 74.3 73.1 3.6 4.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.1 5.3 5.2 2.2 75.7 74.5 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.0 5.3 2.1 75.1 73.4 4.6 5.5 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.3 79.3 76.2 -0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.9 3.8 2.2 77.0 74.3 4.4 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 6.1 6.5 3.3 2.2 77.1 74.0 3.9 4.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 4.9 5.0 5.0 2.1 76.2 74.4 2.8 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.9 3.5 2.2 77.0 74.8 -1.2 -0.5 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.6 4.7 2.2 77.8 74.7 4.9 5.8 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.0 4.1 2.2 76.3 74.2 4.4 5.3 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.4 3.8 2.1 74.7 73.7 4.7 5.5 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.1 3.6 2.1 75.9 73.7 4.6 5.5 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.4 3.4 1.9 72.0 71.6 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.6 5.1 2.2 75.5 75.0 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 5.3 6.0 4.1 2.5 85.0 77.7 2.9 4.3 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.9 3.5 2.1 73.5 73.3 5.3 6.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 4.9 5.3 5.1 2.2 78.1 75.7 2.2 3.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.1 4.5 4.0 2.1 75.4 73.7 2.2 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.1 5.4 2.2 75.6 74.7 3.8 4.6 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 3.7 4.0 2.7 2.1 77.3 74.6 1.4 2.8 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.1 5.1 2.1 75.9 74.0 4.8 5.5 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 5.5 6.2 5.3 2.3 80.6 76.4 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 5.8 6.2 5.5 2.2 74.5 75.0 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.6 4.9 2.1 75.2 73.8 4.6 5.9 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 5.4 5.8 4.0 2.1 75.9 74.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.2 3.1 1.9 75.1 72.1 3.9 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 6.9 7.4 4.6 2.0 74.7 73.2 4.3 5.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.3 3.7 2.4 81.5 76.6 3.7 5.0 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 3.4 3.7 3.5 2.1 76.0 73.6 1.4 2.2 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.3 5.2 2.1 75.7 73.9 3.2 4.3 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------