***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.9 6.2 4.8 2.0 64.3 64.4 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.7 4.7 2.2 67.2 66.0 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.2 4.9 2.0 64.5 64.3 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 2.4 1.5 2.5 1.8 63.8 63.8 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.2 3.0 1.7 60.0 62.2 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.7 2.5 1.6 57.6 62.3 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.7 6.5 4.6 2.2 66.9 65.6 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.8 2.6 1.4 58.2 61.4 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 7.6 6.6 3.9 1.7 60.7 62.3 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 3.2 1.5 59.5 61.6 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 2.8 1.5 59.5 61.5 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.3 2.7 1.4 57.8 61.0 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.9 2.4 1.4 57.3 60.8 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.7 4.4 1.9 63.5 63.2 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.9 65.4 64.9 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 2.6 1.6 59.5 61.5 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.4 4.7 2.3 69.7 66.3 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.5 3.2 1.5 58.2 61.5 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.9 7.0 4.9 2.2 67.4 65.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.3 56.2 60.6 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.8 4.4 1.8 62.5 63.2 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.9 4.9 2.4 71.8 66.8 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 6.4 7.3 5.0 2.1 67.4 65.1 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 7.5 6.5 4.2 1.7 61.5 62.9 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.3 3.4 1.9 65.0 64.4 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.3 2.2 1.3 54.7 60.5 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 7.2 6.6 4.1 1.9 65.3 64.5 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 5.3 4.6 2.8 1.8 63.2 63.7 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.4 56.6 60.9 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 6.7 4.8 2.2 65.8 65.4 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------