***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 6.1 6.7 5.8 1.2 61.0 61.2 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 5.5 6.9 5.9 1.4 66.7 65.3 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 6.6 7.3 5.9 1.2 62.8 62.2 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.4 4.2 4.3 2.6 75.3 72.9 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 6.5 8.8 5.0 2.1 66.4 67.3 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.5 4.3 2.4 70.4 70.3 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 5.4 6.8 5.7 1.4 67.0 66.1 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 2.2 2.9 4.9 2.6 77.0 73.9 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 9.1 9.5 5.9 2.1 69.1 68.5 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.6 5.3 2.3 73.6 70.6 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 8.2 9.4 5.1 2.2 70.5 69.0 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.9 9.5 5.0 2.5 73.6 72.0 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.7 5.0 2.0 69.2 67.7 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.0 6.0 1.8 70.8 68.3 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 6.6 7.3 6.3 3.1 82.2 79.5 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.2 4.8 2.2 68.7 68.0 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 6.1 6.3 5.7 1.7 70.1 69.9 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.5 5.1 2.2 72.1 70.4 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 6.1 7.7 5.9 1.4 67.3 65.0 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 6.3 6.6 4.1 2.6 76.6 74.5 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 6.8 7.9 6.0 1.6 63.8 64.0 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.9 5.9 1.7 73.0 70.0 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 6.2 7.5 5.9 1.4 67.9 65.5 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 9.5 10.2 5.8 1.8 68.9 67.5 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 6.3 7.1 5.1 1.6 63.0 63.7 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.3 4.5 2.1 70.1 70.1 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 6.8 8.0 5.4 1.2 61.2 62.0 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.4 5.2 2.9 77.8 75.2 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.3 5.4 4.6 2.3 73.7 72.0 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 5.8 7.2 5.9 1.3 64.8 63.4 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------