***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 1.9 74.3 72.3 -2.3 -1.2 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 2.1 79.5 75.3 -2.8 -1.6 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 1.1 1.0 -0.2 1.9 74.2 72.6 -1.0 0.5 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -4.2 -4.1 -2.6 2.4 75.5 73.7 -6.2 -5.1 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -1.0 -2.6 2.2 72.7 71.1 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -1.5 -1.5 -4.1 2.2 73.0 72.0 -3.7 -2.1 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 2.2 80.7 75.7 -2.6 -1.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -5.5 -5.3 -3.6 2.3 75.2 72.8 -7.6 -6.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 2.2 73.8 72.5 -2.4 -0.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.9 2.2 74.2 72.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -0.8 -3.1 2.1 71.9 70.3 -3.0 -1.7 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 -1.5 -1.7 -3.3 2.2 70.7 70.2 -3.1 -2.3 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 -1.0 -1.2 -3.7 1.9 65.0 67.9 -3.2 -1.7 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 0.0 0.0 -1.8 2.1 73.6 73.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.6 2.2 76.4 74.2 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.2 -3.6 2.1 70.0 69.3 -2.1 -1.1 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 2.3 83.8 77.6 -2.6 -2.0 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 -2.5 -2.2 -3.5 2.1 72.6 72.0 -4.9 -3.8 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 2.0 77.6 74.4 -2.7 -1.3 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -5.0 -4.7 -4.7 2.2 74.7 71.7 -7.1 -6.0 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 2.0 74.6 72.3 -2.9 -0.9 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 2.3 83.6 77.9 -2.8 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 74.6 73.3 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 -0.9 -0.9 -2.0 2.0 73.7 72.5 -2.9 -1.5 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 2.1 75.9 73.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 -1.2 -1.2 -3.6 1.9 62.5 67.7 -2.8 -1.8 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.2 -0.5 2.0 75.6 73.3 -2.1 -0.9 -0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 2.3 75.6 72.8 -3.6 -2.8 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -3.2 -3.0 -4.1 2.1 73.6 71.5 -5.0 -4.1 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 2.0 77.2 74.0 -2.7 -1.2 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------