***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.4 73.9 69.7 -2.7 -1.3 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 -0.2 0.0 0.6 2.5 74.5 70.7 -2.9 -1.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 1.6 0.9 0.3 2.2 72.0 68.6 -0.8 0.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 -3.6 -3.1 -2.2 2.6 72.2 70.0 -7.1 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.0 -2.1 2.8 73.1 69.8 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -0.6 -3.6 2.6 68.6 68.5 -3.8 -2.1 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.7 2.5 74.0 70.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -4.1 -3.5 -2.9 3.1 74.6 71.1 -7.9 -6.8 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.2 -1.2 2.8 71.6 70.3 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.2 -2.3 2.9 72.0 69.7 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -0.2 0.4 -2.6 2.5 71.6 68.3 -2.8 -1.3 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -0.8 -0.1 -2.5 2.8 73.3 69.5 -4.3 -2.9 -0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 -0.7 0.0 -3.1 2.5 68.4 66.8 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 0.0 0.3 -1.2 2.6 73.2 69.8 -2.3 -1.2 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 -0.4 -0.6 -1.5 2.4 69.7 68.8 -3.5 -1.6 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 0.0 0.4 -3.0 2.5 69.2 67.3 -2.2 -1.6 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 -0.2 1.0 0.8 2.8 79.0 72.4 -2.6 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -1.7 -1.2 -2.7 2.9 71.6 69.9 -5.2 -3.1 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -0.2 0.0 0.4 2.3 73.4 69.8 -2.8 -1.2 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -3.3 -2.8 -3.8 3.3 74.8 71.8 -8.2 -5.4 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 0.1 0.6 -0.1 2.5 72.6 70.5 -3.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 -0.2 0.6 0.9 2.9 79.3 73.3 -2.9 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 2.2 72.0 68.4 -2.8 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.4 2.5 71.9 69.1 -3.0 -1.7 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 0.1 0.7 -0.8 2.6 74.4 71.6 -3.0 -1.7 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.9 2.3 66.9 66.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 0.4 0.9 0.1 2.5 74.5 70.9 -3.1 -1.7 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 2.5 69.9 68.5 -4.2 -2.7 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 -2.5 -2.5 -3.2 2.9 72.9 70.3 -6.0 -4.7 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 0.0 -0.2 0.6 2.3 72.8 69.6 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------