***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.3 62.5 62.0 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.9 71.3 72.6 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 1.7 2.8 0.7 1.5 65.5 64.5 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 -2.4 -2.1 -0.4 2.9 75.0 74.6 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 0.1 0.4 -0.7 2.3 66.9 65.3 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 3.1 70.4 71.0 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.0 74.4 74.4 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 -3.7 -3.9 -1.8 2.8 69.7 69.4 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 0.8 1.9 -0.3 2.2 68.3 65.4 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 0.8 0.7 -1.3 2.5 69.1 67.7 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 0.7 0.3 -0.9 2.4 67.0 67.2 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 48 52 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.5 2.6 65.9 66.5 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 -0.5 0.4 -1.8 2.2 65.1 64.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.4 -0.2 2.2 68.7 68.7 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 1.2 1.2 0.8 2.4 74.2 73.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 48 52 100 0.8 1.1 -1.3 2.6 67.2 66.7 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.4 79.4 78.4 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.3 -1.9 2.2 67.7 67.3 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 1.4 1.6 0.9 1.7 69.3 70.8 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 2.5 68.6 68.8 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 0.2 1.4 0.5 1.6 63.2 61.2 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 1.5 1.7 1.2 2.1 75.4 76.0 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 1.4 1.7 0.6 1.7 68.8 68.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 0.6 1.3 -0.5 2.1 68.5 68.2 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 0.3 1.5 0.3 1.8 64.9 63.7 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 -1.1 0.4 -1.6 2.4 67.2 67.6 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 0.5 2.1 0.5 1.5 64.5 63.7 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 0.5 0.6 -0.1 2.8 74.9 73.9 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 -1.7 -1.5 -2.5 2.5 68.2 67.9 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.6 68.9 69.2 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------