***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 26.8 31.4 39.1 80.7 36.9 38.8 30.9 33.3 42.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 24.7 25.0 32.1 75.6 33.6 37.2 25.0 32.8 45.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 34.0 33.0 37.4 77.6 33.6 37.0 32.7 40.5 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 36.1 35.6 41.2 75.8 32.9 35.0 35.7 49.3 56.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 36.2 35.9 42.5 77.2 35.9 35.7 33.9 43.7 55.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 29.9 35.7 43.7 88.6 43.4 41.7 30.0 39.2 50.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 26.6 30.0 32.0 77.1 36.8 38.2 26.6 38.3 45.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 45.3 52.3 44.2 78.7 33.5 35.6 52.1 57.7 74.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.3 42.7 76.7 36.0 35.4 25.8 29.1 48.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 35.0 34.9 45.2 78.3 33.7 35.5 34.7 43.5 52.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 32.1 34.3 41.8 78.3 34.8 36.0 33.9 40.8 46.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 33.0 34.5 40.8 80.0 34.7 36.4 33.8 43.5 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 32.7 40.5 46.5 85.7 38.9 40.0 37.7 43.9 54.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 49.4 47.9 45.4 75.8 30.9 34.9 48.2 57.5 70.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 30.7 26.5 37.8 72.1 32.6 35.2 26.6 43.3 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.3 27.7 43.1 82.8 38.3 38.6 25.8 41.2 55.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 25.6 30.2 30.2 73.8 33.4 35.8 30.2 35.5 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 31.9 34.6 47.3 78.9 34.2 35.7 34.1 40.8 46.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 25.0 26.8 33.3 75.7 33.1 36.8 26.7 32.4 54.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 35.5 37.6 55.6 78.2 35.1 35.2 37.0 49.0 59.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 30.7 34.5 40.8 76.6 34.6 35.7 32.5 37.2 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 26.1 27.5 31.4 72.2 32.0 34.5 28.4 37.7 56.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.1 25.4 36.1 75.6 33.0 35.9 25.3 39.5 46.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 42.3 44.3 43.0 77.0 31.8 35.4 44.6 48.1 58.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.8 29.6 45.3 81.7 35.6 39.0 28.1 38.4 53.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 31.0 35.1 42.8 85.1 37.8 38.9 32.7 40.3 46.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.7 28.7 42.2 82.6 36.8 39.7 27.3 36.6 61.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.7 29.6 39.1 76.6 34.2 36.3 29.6 33.3 48.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 57.9 58.8 50.3 79.0 33.5 35.5 58.5 70.2 78.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 24.6 28.1 33.7 77.0 34.5 37.9 26.4 37.4 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------