***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.9 12.4 10.8 88.3 56.7 45.6 7.1 12.1 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.0 9.2 89.6 55.3 47.7 5.8 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.9 16.3 10.7 89.0 54.4 47.0 8.8 15.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 8.4 10.2 75.2 47.4 43.1 5.3 9.3 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.1 8.3 10.3 75.4 46.5 42.5 5.4 9.6 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.9 10.4 86.3 53.7 45.0 3.9 6.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.5 9.1 89.3 54.7 47.4 4.6 10.0 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.1 11.4 10.7 78.6 48.7 44.0 5.3 11.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.2 10.8 76.7 46.5 42.3 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.7 11.2 78.9 46.0 43.4 4.9 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.0 8.6 9.9 77.9 47.7 44.1 3.6 8.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.1 9.6 78.9 51.0 44.3 5.4 7.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.6 10.6 82.7 49.7 44.2 3.6 7.7 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.6 19.7 13.0 89.0 53.3 46.4 8.1 18.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 6.3 9.6 73.3 52.8 45.4 2.2 5.6 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.7 9.9 80.0 50.7 44.6 2.2 7.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.1 9.0 91.2 56.1 48.2 5.0 8.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.6 12.3 84.4 50.5 45.0 4.0 9.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.8 9.7 90.9 55.6 48.3 6.0 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.3 14.7 82.3 50.5 44.1 5.2 10.2 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.0 10.2 10.5 79.1 49.8 43.5 6.6 10.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.0 9.5 92.3 55.9 48.4 4.1 8.9 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.6 10.8 91.7 54.8 48.4 6.0 11.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.2 13.9 11.7 86.5 52.8 46.1 7.7 11.9 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.0 14.7 11.7 84.0 51.2 44.4 6.9 14.6 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.1 83.9 52.1 44.6 4.3 8.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.3 11.3 88.1 55.3 45.4 7.0 10.5 13.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.0 5.2 9.4 75.0 50.7 44.5 3.2 5.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 16.6 13.3 85.8 51.4 44.6 11.7 15.6 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.9 9.8 89.7 53.7 47.4 6.1 9.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------