***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.5 12.4 111.0 62.2 52.2 3.0 6.4 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.8 10.4 108.4 58.7 50.5 5.4 7.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 11.6 105.7 59.2 50.5 4.7 8.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.8 16.4 13.8 117.7 66.4 54.3 6.4 11.8 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.1 13.6 13.9 111.7 63.7 52.3 8.4 12.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.6 18.0 15.5 138.8 72.9 54.4 5.3 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.0 10.9 10.5 110.5 61.0 51.4 4.9 8.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 19.7 14.6 118.7 67.3 53.0 10.1 13.6 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 14.0 105.6 61.5 51.2 6.0 7.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 13.8 14.5 109.9 63.4 51.8 6.6 11.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.1 13.6 117.8 67.3 52.7 8.0 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.2 17.1 13.9 125.3 70.0 53.9 6.1 8.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 20.9 15.6 132.3 71.2 54.7 6.9 10.9 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.5 15.6 13.6 102.4 61.3 50.7 9.9 12.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.3 13.5 122.3 68.4 56.9 1.9 9.3 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.2 14.0 14.5 129.0 70.9 54.7 6.8 10.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.3 9.7 101.0 56.9 48.7 3.9 7.3 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.4 14.9 107.6 62.6 51.5 4.5 8.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.0 10.4 106.9 59.0 50.4 4.8 8.2 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.0 18.8 114.5 64.5 52.2 5.3 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.1 13.2 105.8 61.1 51.4 6.0 7.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.5 9.8 97.1 54.5 48.4 4.5 6.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.2 10.9 104.7 59.4 50.4 3.9 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.1 13.1 103.4 61.6 50.5 5.7 9.9 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.9 14.2 111.7 62.6 52.5 5.5 10.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.6 15.7 139.5 72.6 55.4 7.1 9.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.5 13.1 111.2 61.1 52.0 4.2 9.3 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 13.2 13.4 122.3 68.9 55.0 3.7 7.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.1 15.9 109.0 62.9 51.6 7.9 13.4 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.8 10.8 110.0 59.9 51.5 4.7 8.0 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------