***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.9 12.1 101.2 57.3 50.4 4.4 6.0 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.6 9.3 87.6 51.7 44.5 3.9 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.9 11.8 100.4 58.0 49.2 5.5 7.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.4 14.2 101.8 59.4 51.0 6.2 8.0 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.9 14.2 103.9 57.8 51.7 7.8 9.5 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.3 14.7 120.0 64.0 54.2 3.3 6.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.0 8.8 87.1 52.8 44.8 4.6 7.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.6 22.6 15.2 114.1 64.3 53.5 13.3 20.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.2 14.5 108.7 58.7 53.3 5.7 7.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.3 16.1 15.6 116.0 63.8 55.1 8.3 12.2 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.1 12.2 14.8 109.9 61.0 52.2 6.2 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.8 14.3 14.2 110.0 62.2 51.4 6.6 13.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.4 18.1 16.2 124.8 66.4 56.7 6.6 11.4 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.3 15.4 15.5 106.2 60.3 51.4 10.2 13.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.7 13.1 102.1 62.3 52.3 3.1 5.2 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.6 13.2 15.3 118.1 64.8 54.7 6.3 8.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.1 8.6 8.2 79.1 49.6 42.8 4.7 8.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 14.7 16.3 117.5 63.7 56.4 8.3 11.4 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.7 10.2 91.8 53.9 45.8 4.6 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 16.5 17.6 112.0 61.3 54.2 8.2 12.9 17.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.7 13.6 106.1 58.6 52.4 6.1 7.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.1 9.3 84.5 50.6 44.5 5.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.8 11.6 94.6 55.3 46.9 3.4 7.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.4 15.0 14.9 110.8 62.1 54.0 7.9 12.8 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.3 7.4 14.2 102.3 57.8 51.1 3.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.9 11.8 13.9 108.1 62.2 50.1 6.7 9.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.1 12.9 101.9 58.3 50.7 3.7 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 14.0 108.7 62.8 52.7 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.9 24.4 17.1 115.6 61.7 55.4 15.9 20.8 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.6 9.9 93.0 54.3 46.3 3.8 7.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------