***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 1.6 0.7 3.9 29.3 23.7 20.7 1.6 6.4 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.2 27.0 25.5 20.1 2.5 6.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 1.3 0.5 3.2 24.2 21.9 18.6 1.4 5.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.3 3.0 19.7 16.2 14.1 5.3 8.6 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.1 4.2 27.2 20.2 18.3 4.6 7.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 1.2 1.0 3.1 22.1 17.3 16.3 1.8 2.9 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.0 1.4 3.6 30.8 27.8 22.4 2.1 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 3.4 2.7 3.7 21.8 16.9 14.5 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.7 3.4 22.5 17.6 15.9 2.6 4.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.7 3.9 23.1 17.4 15.1 2.9 5.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.0 3.5 22.3 16.9 15.6 2.1 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.3 3.1 20.8 16.6 14.8 4.4 5.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 2.8 2.4 4.1 24.8 16.1 16.7 3.5 4.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 2.5 1.3 3.3 19.2 16.0 13.6 4.5 9.6 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.6 10.2 13.4 11.1 0.8 3.3 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.4 3.3 21.1 16.2 15.7 2.3 5.8 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.5 3.3 30.0 27.5 21.5 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.4 3.8 21.5 16.1 14.2 2.8 5.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 1.6 1.0 3.0 24.1 22.6 18.4 2.4 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 2.9 2.4 4.4 21.3 16.4 14.2 3.9 6.6 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.5 3.4 23.5 19.0 17.3 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.9 2.8 23.4 21.5 18.1 2.8 6.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 1.7 0.4 2.9 21.5 20.5 16.6 1.4 8.2 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 2.0 1.3 3.3 20.2 17.2 14.6 2.0 7.4 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.8 1.5 5.2 34.9 24.9 23.2 2.4 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 2.1 1.9 3.2 22.3 18.7 16.1 4.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.3 4.8 35.0 25.0 23.4 3.9 5.7 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.2 15.1 14.0 12.4 0.9 5.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 3.5 2.1 4.0 21.3 15.7 13.9 4.7 14.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 1.5 0.6 3.3 26.5 24.4 20.2 2.2 5.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------