***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.0 3.8 -0.7 36.9 42.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.7 4.0 -0.5 37.2 43.9 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.2 4.4 -0.4 39.3 45.0 5.0 5.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.6 1.7 -0.1 46.3 50.2 -0.5 0.9 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.4 2.8 -0.3 42.8 47.7 4.6 5.7 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.6 1.6 -1.1 34.5 39.1 4.5 5.0 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.2 3.8 -0.6 34.1 41.9 3.0 4.2 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.3 3.0 0.2 50.2 52.3 -0.9 -0.3 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.1 3.8 -0.1 45.5 49.1 5.4 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.4 3.5 0.1 48.5 51.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.7 3.2 -0.2 44.2 48.6 5.0 5.8 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.7 3.0 0.0 46.7 50.1 4.8 5.7 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.3 2.8 -0.4 40.3 45.7 4.8 5.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.3 4.7 0.2 52.0 52.0 4.8 6.2 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.5 3.0 0.0 46.8 51.4 2.9 4.5 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.0 2.6 -0.4 40.8 45.9 5.6 6.3 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.7 3.0 4.0 -0.4 38.1 44.7 2.2 4.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.4 3.6 0.2 51.4 52.5 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.2 4.2 -0.4 39.3 45.3 3.9 5.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.8 2.4 0.3 52.2 53.4 1.9 2.7 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.3 4.1 -0.4 41.1 46.3 5.1 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.8 4.2 -0.2 42.2 47.2 3.0 4.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 4.6 -0.2 42.7 47.8 3.8 4.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.2 4.4 0.0 48.8 50.7 4.4 6.2 6.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 3.8 2.7 -0.6 37.4 43.5 3.4 4.7 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 2.3 -0.4 40.5 45.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.3 -0.8 34.7 41.1 4.5 5.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 2.3 -0.1 46.0 50.0 3.7 5.3 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.5 3.2 0.3 53.2 53.6 1.7 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.8 3.9 -0.6 36.9 42.8 3.6 4.6 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------