***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.8 3.7 3.2 -0.4 41.6 48.9 2.8 4.6 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.2 3.2 -0.3 42.4 48.4 2.0 4.3 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.4 3.7 -0.3 42.6 49.1 3.1 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -0.1 0.7 -0.3 40.9 49.4 -1.4 1.0 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.6 1.8 -0.3 42.5 49.4 3.0 4.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.4 2.8 1.7 -0.5 42.0 47.8 1.8 4.5 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.3 3.1 3.1 -0.5 42.2 47.5 1.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.4 0.0 2.2 -0.1 48.5 50.7 -2.8 0.0 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.0 6.5 2.8 -0.2 45.7 49.9 3.0 6.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.3 2.6 -0.1 48.5 50.8 2.2 5.4 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.6 2.0 -0.4 42.3 49.0 2.9 6.0 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.5 2.1 -0.3 45.4 49.3 3.2 6.6 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.7 1.8 -0.3 45.6 49.5 2.7 5.3 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 3.7 0.0 50.7 50.2 3.0 7.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.8 1.3 -0.4 39.1 48.6 1.4 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.7 1.7 -0.4 42.1 48.8 3.2 6.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.2 3.3 -0.4 43.8 47.8 1.8 3.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 3.3 3.0 0.2 52.6 52.7 1.1 2.9 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.0 3.4 -0.3 42.6 48.9 2.3 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -1.1 2.3 1.9 0.3 52.8 54.0 -0.6 2.1 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.0 3.2 -0.3 43.3 49.4 2.8 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.6 3.4 -0.3 45.0 48.4 2.7 4.2 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.5 3.8 -0.2 43.3 49.2 2.0 4.9 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.5 3.5 0.0 49.8 51.2 4.1 7.5 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.5 1.8 -0.4 43.2 49.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.9 1.7 -0.3 44.3 49.8 1.5 4.9 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 4.3 2.8 -0.4 42.3 49.0 3.3 5.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.7 1.0 -0.4 39.5 48.7 3.3 4.4 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 3.0 2.7 0.3 52.3 53.6 -0.2 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.2 3.1 -0.4 40.8 48.4 2.0 4.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------