***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.2 3.4 -0.4 44.4 49.2 2.3 4.3 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.3 3.5 -0.2 45.1 50.0 2.5 4.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.6 3.8 -0.3 46.3 49.8 3.5 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 0.9 -0.2 46.3 50.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.6 2.0 -0.2 46.9 50.7 2.7 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.2 2.9 1.7 -0.6 41.5 48.2 2.1 3.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.1 3.4 -0.3 43.5 49.2 2.0 4.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.1 2.2 -0.1 46.6 51.1 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.8 3.0 -0.1 46.2 50.6 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.8 2.7 -0.1 46.2 50.9 2.9 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.2 2.2 -0.1 46.7 51.0 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.4 2.2 -0.1 46.1 51.2 2.6 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.0 1.9 -0.2 45.6 50.6 2.7 3.9 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.7 3.6 -0.2 46.5 50.0 4.4 5.0 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.0 1.6 -0.3 41.5 50.3 2.9 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.9 1.9 -0.2 45.7 50.5 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.4 3.6 -0.1 44.4 50.2 2.1 3.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.5 2.9 0.0 46.1 50.8 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.7 -0.2 46.0 50.2 2.7 4.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.0 0.2 1.7 0.1 45.3 51.5 -0.7 0.5 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.2 3.3 -0.2 45.8 49.9 2.9 5.0 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.1 3.7 0.0 46.1 51.0 2.8 4.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.0 -0.2 46.5 50.3 3.1 4.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.9 3.5 -0.1 46.5 50.3 3.8 5.1 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.0 -0.4 44.5 49.1 2.7 3.8 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.0 1.9 -0.1 44.6 51.2 2.2 4.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.7 2.9 -0.5 43.1 48.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.9 1.3 -0.2 44.7 50.3 3.1 4.3 5.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.6 0.3 2.5 0.0 46.2 50.9 -0.7 0.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.6 3.4 -0.3 45.0 49.5 2.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------