***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.3 4.6 0.2 46.3 50.4 2.6 3.6 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.7 2.9 5.0 0.5 50.1 53.3 2.0 2.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.3 4.3 5.3 0.4 49.3 52.7 3.3 4.5 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.7 0.2 2.4 0.7 53.7 55.4 -0.8 0.0 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.0 3.4 0.3 48.6 51.9 3.0 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.2 1.8 -0.6 39.6 45.1 2.2 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.6 2.3 4.7 0.3 47.7 51.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.4 3.1 0.4 49.1 52.7 -1.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 5.5 4.8 4.4 0.4 50.0 52.8 3.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.3 3.7 0.4 48.7 52.4 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 4.7 3.8 0.4 49.3 52.1 3.1 4.8 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.3 3.4 0.4 48.5 52.3 3.2 4.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.8 3.4 0.1 43.6 49.9 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.1 5.4 0.9 56.7 56.3 3.0 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 3.9 4.5 4.0 0.9 54.6 56.9 2.8 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.9 3.2 0.2 46.5 50.7 3.5 5.6 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.4 2.8 4.9 0.6 51.2 54.1 1.4 2.7 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.9 3.5 0.3 49.0 52.5 1.4 3.0 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.9 3.2 5.2 0.6 51.6 54.2 2.4 3.1 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 1.4 2.2 0.3 45.0 52.1 0.5 2.8 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.2 4.4 4.9 0.3 48.8 52.2 3.6 4.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.3 5.3 0.8 55.7 55.9 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.2 3.8 5.5 0.7 54.3 55.5 2.9 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.5 4.9 0.5 52.6 53.9 3.7 5.2 6.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.4 3.5 0.1 46.7 50.2 2.6 3.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.9 2.7 0.1 43.2 50.1 3.1 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.3 4.1 0.0 45.1 48.8 2.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.8 3.2 0.7 53.9 55.7 3.0 4.6 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.0 2.0 3.0 0.3 47.3 52.1 0.8 2.5 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.8 2.9 4.9 0.4 49.3 52.5 2.1 3.0 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------