***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.2 3.0 4.0 -2.1 29.5 29.8 3.3 5.6 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.3 4.2 -1.9 31.4 31.4 2.4 5.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.1 4.8 -1.6 34.0 34.9 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 2.1 1.7 2.8 -0.5 45.0 44.7 -0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 6.2 4.9 3.9 -0.9 39.0 39.0 4.4 5.8 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.8 3.2 1.3 -2.6 27.1 27.2 3.7 6.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.4 2.7 3.8 -2.2 28.6 28.9 2.8 5.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 96 4 100 0.8 0.7 4.6 0.4 50.0 50.7 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 6.8 5.3 5.0 -0.6 41.0 41.4 5.1 6.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 96 4 100 6.3 5.8 5.0 0.1 47.8 48.1 4.0 6.2 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 6.3 5.4 4.7 -0.6 41.8 41.9 4.3 5.9 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 6.6 5.2 4.4 -0.1 44.8 45.1 4.6 6.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.1 4.6 4.2 -1.2 36.6 36.2 4.0 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 6.8 6.6 6.0 0.1 50.2 49.3 3.6 6.6 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 6.0 5.6 4.9 -0.1 46.3 47.2 3.8 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 6.6 5.1 3.5 -1.2 37.6 37.0 4.6 6.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.9 2.3 3.9 -1.8 32.8 32.4 2.3 4.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 96 4 100 4.3 4.1 4.8 0.4 49.1 50.1 3.1 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 3.1 4.5 -1.6 33.2 33.7 3.0 5.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 97 3 100 4.5 4.4 3.9 0.6 50.4 51.9 2.5 4.4 5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.6 4.5 5.0 -1.2 36.4 36.9 4.0 6.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.8 3.2 4.6 -1.3 37.1 37.2 2.7 5.5 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 6.2 3.2 5.0 -1.1 37.6 38.5 3.0 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 7.0 6.3 5.6 -0.2 45.1 46.3 3.9 6.7 9.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.5 -1.8 33.1 32.7 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.1 2.8 -1.4 31.8 33.1 4.1 5.8 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.5 -2.3 28.9 28.6 3.5 6.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 6.4 6.0 3.7 -0.5 45.7 45.6 4.4 6.2 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 96 4 100 3.4 3.8 4.6 0.7 51.4 52.7 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.5 2.3 4.2 -2.0 29.9 30.5 2.6 5.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------