***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 -2.5 -2.2 -2.2 -1.2 27.4 36.4 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -2.5 -2.0 -0.8 32.4 40.5 -2.4 -1.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -0.7 -0.9 -1.9 -0.9 31.0 39.8 -0.8 0.1 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -6.2 -5.7 -4.3 -0.5 38.1 44.5 -5.8 -5.0 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 -3.8 -0.7 34.7 42.9 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -7.1 -2.1 24.0 28.9 -3.3 -2.2 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -2.0 -1.0 30.9 39.1 -2.5 -1.4 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -6.9 -5.0 -0.2 44.7 47.4 -7.1 -6.5 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 -3.4 -0.5 35.5 44.1 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -2.4 -4.4 -0.3 42.7 47.1 -2.7 -2.1 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -2.9 -2.2 -4.3 -0.6 37.8 44.0 -2.6 -1.7 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -0.5 40.6 44.8 -3.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -2.7 -5.1 -0.7 35.7 42.0 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.5 -3.3 -0.2 44.0 47.5 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.8 -2.9 -0.5 36.6 44.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -5.0 -0.8 34.8 41.2 -2.0 -0.9 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -1.8 -0.7 35.1 41.9 -2.7 -1.8 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -3.6 -4.8 -0.1 46.5 48.9 -4.7 -3.3 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -2.3 -2.4 -2.0 -0.7 33.5 41.1 -2.4 -1.4 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -5.6 -6.1 -5.8 -0.1 47.8 49.0 -7.2 -5.8 -5.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -0.8 32.4 41.0 -2.4 -1.2 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.8 -1.8 -0.6 34.7 42.5 -2.8 -1.8 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 35.9 42.5 -2.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.3 -3.6 -0.3 40.9 46.6 -2.9 -1.6 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 -3.2 -1.2 29.1 37.8 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -5.3 -1.0 34.2 39.4 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.7 -1.3 27.1 36.4 -1.9 -1.1 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -3.9 -3.0 -4.1 -0.6 37.5 43.7 -3.5 -2.6 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -3.8 -4.2 -5.3 0.0 47.0 49.6 -5.0 -4.0 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -2.3 -2.0 -0.9 30.6 39.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------