***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -2.3 -0.6 39.5 49.0 -3.6 -1.6 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -2.3 -2.0 -0.1 43.8 51.4 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 -2.2 -0.3 42.4 50.3 -1.4 -0.3 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -7.2 -6.6 -5.3 -0.5 40.3 49.6 -7.2 -5.8 -4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -3.3 -4.8 -0.5 40.9 50.3 -3.6 -2.3 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -5.4 -4.2 -6.9 -1.0 39.4 45.8 -5.4 -3.2 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 -0.1 43.4 50.8 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -7.0 -8.3 -5.9 -0.3 44.7 50.4 -9.5 -7.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.8 -4.1 -0.3 41.7 51.1 -3.2 -1.5 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -3.2 -5.4 -0.4 43.5 50.5 -4.1 -2.1 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -3.0 -5.4 -0.5 41.1 50.2 -3.9 -2.2 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -5.7 -3.9 -5.6 -0.3 44.2 50.9 -4.7 -3.7 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -4.2 -3.1 -5.9 -0.4 45.8 50.1 -3.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.9 -4.1 -0.2 45.6 51.0 -2.3 -1.6 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -4.0 -4.1 -0.5 37.9 49.9 -4.3 -2.9 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -1.9 -5.9 -0.5 42.2 49.7 -3.2 -1.6 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -2.6 -1.8 0.0 45.8 51.6 -3.2 -2.3 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.8 -6.0 -0.3 45.7 50.7 -5.8 -3.5 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -1.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.1 44.1 51.3 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -5.5 -7.8 -6.8 -0.2 47.8 51.0 -10.4 -6.7 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -3.1 -0.4 41.4 50.6 -3.2 -1.8 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 46.6 51.7 -3.6 -2.0 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -2.1 -2.3 -0.1 44.6 51.1 -2.7 -1.9 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.5 -4.6 -0.3 44.0 50.5 -3.7 -2.3 -0.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -3.4 -3.0 -3.8 -0.7 38.5 48.8 -3.4 -1.7 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -3.4 -5.7 -0.2 43.2 50.7 -5.3 -2.3 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.5 -2.8 -0.6 38.7 48.9 -3.3 -1.7 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -5.1 -4.2 -5.2 -0.5 39.9 49.7 -4.9 -3.6 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.2 -5.9 -6.2 -0.3 46.0 50.7 -7.1 -5.5 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -2.0 -0.2 42.4 50.8 -2.7 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------