***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 -3.4 -3.3 -2.8 -3.7 17.7 17.7 -1.8 0.0 1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -2.6 -3.2 18.8 19.6 -2.2 -0.4 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 -2.4 -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 20.7 21.7 -0.8 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -8.2 -6.9 -3.4 -1.8 25.3 27.3 -5.8 -3.7 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 -3.7 -3.5 -2.9 -2.3 24.0 25.1 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 -5.5 -7.7 -8.8 -6.0 9.2 10.1 -3.4 -1.1 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 -3.9 -3.9 -2.8 -3.4 18.1 18.5 -1.7 -0.1 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -4.7 -6.0 -3.7 -0.9 35.4 35.7 -6.3 -5.2 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 -3.2 -2.7 -2.9 -2.0 25.1 26.0 -1.9 0.1 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -1.9 -3.3 -1.0 33.2 34.1 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 -3.6 -3.2 -3.2 -1.9 26.0 27.2 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 -4.5 -3.6 -3.7 -1.7 28.0 29.4 -3.2 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 -4.8 -3.0 -4.3 -2.3 25.3 26.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 -2.6 -1.3 30.7 31.9 -0.9 -0.3 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 -3.8 -4.4 -1.7 -1.8 22.7 25.1 -2.0 -0.8 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 -3.6 -2.6 -4.4 -2.7 21.9 23.3 -2.0 -0.2 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 -4.1 -3.8 -2.6 -2.9 20.7 21.9 -2.1 -0.5 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -3.4 -0.7 33.9 36.2 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -2.5 -3.0 19.5 20.7 -1.8 -0.2 0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -4.5 -6.1 -4.2 -0.6 38.4 39.6 -6.7 -4.9 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -2.4 -2.7 21.8 22.2 -2.3 -0.5 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 -3.9 -3.0 -2.3 -2.8 20.9 22.4 -2.1 -0.5 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -2.3 -2.5 21.6 23.1 -1.4 -0.3 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 -2.4 -2.1 -2.6 -1.3 30.1 31.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.3 19.8 19.7 -1.6 -0.3 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 -4.8 -4.8 -5.1 -3.2 20.3 21.4 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 -4.4 -3.8 -3.2 -3.8 18.1 17.7 -1.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 -4.5 -4.4 -3.4 -2.3 22.4 24.7 -3.5 -2.5 -0.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 -2.9 -4.6 -4.0 -0.4 36.8 38.1 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 -3.9 -3.6 -2.6 -3.3 18.4 19.1 -1.8 -0.1 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------