***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 53.4 39.3 53.5 121.0 66.9 62.1 25.8 32.8 37.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 48.9 47.1 49.0 125.2 69.7 63.3 23.9 30.7 45.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 45.8 57.4 50.1 114.3 64.6 59.0 32.7 39.6 58.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 53.4 54.0 56.0 110.3 63.0 58.2 33.2 49.3 54.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 48.5 53.8 55.2 108.7 62.4 57.1 34.2 42.8 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 29.0 44.2 46.3 97.1 54.1 49.2 30.0 40.9 48.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 54.8 48.9 49.6 129.4 72.9 65.2 22.1 38.2 45.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 48.1 61.5 54.6 101.3 56.2 52.4 52.1 59.9 67.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 35.6 37.8 53.3 105.3 59.1 55.4 26.6 30.9 42.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 46.9 47.1 54.6 100.9 56.0 52.7 36.1 43.6 53.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 46.3 45.6 51.8 103.3 58.3 54.0 33.5 43.3 46.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 35.8 43.8 48.6 99.2 55.0 50.8 35.9 43.3 50.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 34.0 48.1 51.3 97.1 53.8 48.9 38.0 43.5 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 59.4 60.5 59.3 107.3 60.1 55.4 48.3 55.2 63.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 49.9 56.7 52.5 108.4 62.6 56.6 28.5 43.4 64.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 30.6 45.3 47.6 96.5 54.4 49.3 26.9 42.2 51.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 51.1 49.0 49.9 130.5 72.6 64.7 29.0 33.3 43.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 44.9 44.0 57.7 102.1 57.4 53.0 34.7 40.5 47.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 53.2 52.9 49.2 121.6 68.6 61.8 24.5 35.1 45.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 37.1 54.5 75.5 109.9 64.3 56.2 38.3 47.9 54.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 42.9 41.6 51.4 107.0 60.2 55.9 29.9 37.3 45.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 53.7 54.2 52.1 128.5 72.8 64.1 27.7 39.7 45.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 50.5 51.6 50.9 117.1 67.3 59.8 23.3 37.9 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 50.9 50.5 53.7 104.0 59.3 54.1 44.6 48.1 51.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 50.7 53.5 62.0 121.3 67.3 63.2 29.1 37.4 53.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 46.0 42.8 48.8 98.5 56.5 49.9 29.1 40.9 48.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 56.6 55.0 58.7 125.3 68.2 64.0 27.0 34.5 43.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 40.2 39.3 48.8 101.3 58.8 53.0 27.1 33.4 52.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 75.1 74.9 63.6 104.9 59.1 54.4 58.5 70.2 77.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 54.3 47.0 49.7 124.2 69.0 63.0 25.5 35.9 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------