***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.1 12.2 110.2 63.4 50.9 3.8 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 16.7 11.4 123.0 67.5 55.6 5.3 8.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.1 12.3 114.3 64.8 51.1 6.5 11.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.8 13.4 109.3 62.9 50.4 4.5 10.4 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.7 13.6 112.2 63.6 50.2 6.6 9.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.0 11.0 105.6 59.8 52.7 4.5 7.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.6 17.3 11.0 118.5 68.0 55.2 4.5 8.6 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 21.0 14.2 116.8 66.4 53.0 6.4 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.8 14.2 112.7 65.3 50.5 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.6 14.6 114.5 65.6 51.9 5.0 7.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.9 12.9 114.5 63.7 51.4 4.8 8.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.7 12.2 113.0 63.4 51.9 3.9 7.7 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.2 11.7 103.6 57.5 49.5 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.5 23.2 15.2 116.3 65.7 52.5 7.1 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.8 14.6 121.6 66.5 54.9 2.8 6.3 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.1 11.7 107.5 61.1 50.2 3.9 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.4 11.4 127.6 69.9 57.3 6.6 7.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.1 15.2 112.8 64.7 51.4 5.1 7.9 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.7 15.5 11.7 123.6 67.1 55.1 4.7 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 15.6 18.7 115.7 65.9 53.2 5.7 9.3 15.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.4 13.0 108.9 63.7 49.6 6.6 9.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.4 15.5 12.3 134.1 71.7 58.3 3.9 9.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.8 12.4 121.0 65.9 54.2 5.1 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 16.6 14.0 113.2 65.2 51.1 7.7 9.1 16.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.7 15.5 13.4 104.8 60.0 49.1 7.1 11.9 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.4 11.7 110.5 62.0 51.5 3.0 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 11.7 12.7 107.5 60.9 50.7 3.8 10.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.4 12.8 110.4 63.5 51.9 3.9 5.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 17.7 16.4 113.9 65.3 51.9 10.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.8 11.6 120.5 66.6 54.1 4.9 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------