***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.9 13.1 121.9 69.3 58.5 3.0 7.1 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.0 12.0 124.6 68.0 58.5 4.6 7.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.2 13.1 121.8 67.4 57.5 5.3 7.9 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.5 13.8 107.7 60.3 54.6 6.0 11.3 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.0 13.6 103.6 58.5 52.2 8.3 10.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.3 11.8 92.3 56.8 48.7 8.1 13.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.7 12.5 134.5 70.3 60.9 4.7 7.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.7 14.2 96.8 58.2 49.5 11.7 15.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 14.5 107.7 59.0 52.9 5.9 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.0 14.7 102.6 59.3 51.2 6.1 11.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.2 12.9 98.0 59.2 50.8 6.3 10.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.6 12.6 93.9 59.0 48.9 8.2 9.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.0 15.3 13.0 95.2 59.1 49.9 8.6 10.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.4 14.4 15.4 111.5 60.8 53.6 7.2 11.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 16.6 14.4 117.4 67.3 58.0 1.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.0 12.2 94.9 58.9 50.0 7.2 10.1 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.6 11.3 12.8 138.1 72.8 60.9 3.9 7.2 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.1 15.6 106.4 60.6 51.7 4.9 8.1 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.2 12.0 119.3 65.1 57.4 4.4 7.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 15.6 19.9 105.9 60.7 50.8 5.0 13.1 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.5 13.6 111.2 62.3 54.0 6.0 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.0 12.8 129.4 70.0 58.7 3.9 6.6 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.2 12.6 116.3 62.5 56.4 3.8 6.0 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.1 14.6 112.0 63.3 53.6 5.6 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.0 15.7 14.2 112.5 62.8 55.8 4.5 8.5 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.9 12.8 12.3 91.8 56.5 46.9 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.3 13.7 13.7 120.2 66.8 58.2 4.7 9.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.9 12.4 12.9 104.7 61.6 54.3 3.9 7.9 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.7 18.0 16.9 106.4 60.1 51.0 8.8 15.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.2 12.4 125.4 68.3 58.6 4.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------