***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9.3 11.5 19.1 171.3 80.2 71.9 3.5 5.3 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.5 13.5 17.6 176.2 80.5 68.9 3.5 7.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.7 15.5 17.3 159.3 79.1 69.1 6.3 7.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.0 16.2 19.2 151.7 77.0 68.2 7.2 9.5 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 13.8 16.6 16.8 134.0 73.9 64.8 8.6 9.3 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.3 15.6 128.8 71.6 58.4 3.1 7.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.5 17.4 17.1 174.6 79.8 68.7 3.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 24.4 27.0 18.8 153.3 76.9 68.8 14.8 18.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.2 10.9 16.8 139.5 74.5 66.7 5.8 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.3 17.7 17.0 137.0 73.0 65.2 6.4 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.9 16.5 17.9 144.5 77.1 68.5 8.3 11.8 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.5 20.0 17.8 150.3 77.9 69.4 7.1 13.2 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 16.0 19.2 17.7 136.5 74.0 64.4 6.3 9.1 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 19.7 25.3 20.9 162.4 80.7 67.6 9.8 13.6 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.1 27.0 19.3 177.8 82.2 72.2 1.0 4.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.8 19.0 15.3 125.2 72.1 61.2 5.1 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.5 16.2 17.0 173.8 80.3 67.7 4.3 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 15.7 17.4 18.2 142.9 74.5 65.3 6.3 12.5 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 13.6 21.0 18.0 175.8 81.3 69.1 4.8 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 16.6 19.3 26.7 174.8 81.3 71.9 8.6 12.6 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 10.5 11.4 16.6 143.6 74.2 66.7 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.5 17.8 18.3 176.6 80.6 68.5 5.7 6.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.5 22.5 18.9 175.6 81.4 68.9 5.3 7.5 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 17.1 19.8 17.5 145.5 75.8 65.6 5.5 12.7 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 9.8 11.8 20.5 160.4 78.4 70.1 2.7 5.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.3 15.7 17.9 146.1 76.6 65.8 6.7 9.3 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.5 17.8 20.2 171.0 80.1 71.8 3.1 5.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 14.4 19.6 16.8 145.5 76.5 66.1 2.9 6.2 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 27.7 31.5 21.5 154.5 76.8 67.9 14.3 19.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.0 17.6 17.8 175.2 81.5 70.0 3.2 8.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------