***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.7 9.1 81.1 53.8 48.0 2.0 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.9 8.0 78.0 55.3 47.0 2.6 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.3 7.4 64.7 45.8 41.8 2.1 5.2 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.6 9.0 9.6 73.7 51.2 45.2 3.9 8.6 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.5 11.3 86.3 55.3 49.0 4.4 6.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.1 8.0 63.6 45.4 40.3 1.2 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.0 9.1 91.0 59.8 51.7 2.8 6.0 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.5 5.9 7.3 49.1 35.4 34.2 5.2 9.9 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.2 7.9 63.0 46.3 41.7 1.7 5.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.2 8.3 56.9 38.9 37.7 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.4 8.1 60.9 42.8 39.4 2.0 5.8 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.4 6.0 46.3 35.9 33.5 2.6 6.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.4 4.5 9.0 59.7 37.9 36.7 4.1 6.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.0 6.0 7.8 50.2 37.1 34.7 5.1 8.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.1 2.3 4.2 31.7 38.0 30.2 1.3 3.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.6 8.3 62.5 41.9 38.5 2.3 4.0 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.5 8.7 84.9 56.7 49.4 2.7 6.8 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 2.8 2.9 8.6 55.5 37.4 36.4 2.6 6.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 5.7 7.4 69.9 50.4 43.7 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.3 4.6 10.2 55.6 39.1 35.8 3.9 6.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.7 6.6 8.1 66.4 47.0 42.9 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.8 8.9 8.7 78.3 50.4 45.9 2.4 8.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.4 6.9 59.9 43.7 39.2 2.5 7.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.7 5.8 7.6 53.4 38.1 36.1 5.1 8.3 12.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 6.6 8.7 14.0 107.5 63.2 56.9 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.8 6.9 51.7 37.6 35.2 3.6 6.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.2 10.5 12.1 102.2 62.1 55.0 3.7 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.7 1.6 6.3 49.8 41.5 35.2 0.4 4.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 5.8 8.8 53.6 35.9 35.7 4.3 10.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.9 7.9 76.2 53.7 46.3 1.9 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------