***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.4 5.7 1.0 61.7 61.7 4.0 4.9 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.2 4.9 5.6 1.0 59.8 61.0 3.3 4.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.4 6.2 1.2 64.5 63.0 5.0 5.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.9 2.9 0.8 60.5 59.0 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.1 4.3 1.0 64.0 60.8 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.1 3.3 0.5 54.4 56.5 4.4 5.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 4.9 4.7 5.5 0.9 59.8 60.8 3.2 4.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.2 3.6 0.5 54.0 55.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.7 5.3 1.1 64.0 62.1 5.3 6.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.0 4.4 0.8 58.3 58.3 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.1 4.6 1.0 62.0 61.4 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.1 4.1 0.8 57.9 58.6 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.7 5.8 4.2 0.8 58.4 59.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.9 5.9 1.1 63.9 61.1 4.8 6.2 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.3 4.3 1.0 62.8 61.6 3.0 4.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.7 4.1 0.9 61.1 60.3 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.6 5.4 0.8 58.1 59.9 2.4 4.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.9 4.4 0.7 56.7 57.4 2.9 3.5 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.4 5.9 1.1 61.5 61.7 4.0 5.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.4 2.5 0.1 47.4 50.8 2.1 2.5 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.4 5.9 1.1 64.6 62.8 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 5.5 0.9 58.7 60.1 3.1 4.4 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.5 6.2 1.2 63.5 62.5 4.2 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.3 6.7 5.7 1.1 63.3 61.3 4.6 6.4 6.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.9 4.3 0.8 59.8 58.9 3.5 4.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.2 3.5 0.5 55.1 57.0 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.2 5.2 0.8 60.1 59.9 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.6 3.7 1.0 62.5 60.5 3.8 5.4 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.7 3.8 0.5 53.4 55.2 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.2 4.9 5.7 1.0 60.2 61.5 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------