***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.8 5.2 1.9 61.6 64.8 2.4 4.3 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 6.5 4.9 5.1 1.8 61.1 64.1 2.3 4.0 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.4 7.2 5.6 1.9 62.1 64.3 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.8 66.5 64.4 -1.0 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.3 6.5 3.7 1.9 65.9 64.7 2.9 5.2 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 3.5 1.9 67.5 65.1 1.7 4.5 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.0 4.3 5.1 1.8 60.7 64.2 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 0.7 0.9 3.5 1.6 62.7 63.0 -2.4 -0.4 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.1 4.6 1.9 64.7 64.0 2.9 6.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.1 4.1 1.7 62.9 63.2 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.1 3.8 1.9 66.0 64.7 3.1 5.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.8 7.6 3.8 1.8 66.2 64.7 3.2 6.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.2 3.6 1.9 68.1 65.8 2.9 6.0 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.8 7.7 5.3 1.7 60.0 62.0 3.9 6.1 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.2 3.2 1.7 64.0 63.5 1.2 3.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.0 7.8 3.6 2.0 67.7 65.6 3.3 6.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 6.0 3.9 5.0 1.6 61.3 62.5 1.9 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.2 4.4 4.3 1.7 60.7 62.3 1.5 2.5 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.2 5.7 5.3 1.8 61.2 63.9 2.7 4.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.6 2.6 1.4 58.1 61.0 -0.6 1.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.7 7.2 5.1 1.8 64.2 64.1 3.1 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 6.6 4.8 5.0 1.5 60.1 61.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.6 5.7 1.8 60.9 63.5 2.3 4.3 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.7 5.1 1.8 60.9 62.7 4.4 6.6 8.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 5.4 4.6 3.7 1.8 65.3 64.5 2.7 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.1 3.3 1.8 68.0 65.5 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.9 4.8 1.8 62.9 64.8 3.2 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.3 2.9 1.8 64.9 64.1 2.6 5.4 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.5 3.8 1.6 59.4 61.7 -0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.3 5.0 5.1 1.9 60.4 64.6 2.6 3.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------