***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.6 7.4 2.5 76.1 70.5 2.5 4.0 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.4 7.2 2.3 69.7 67.9 1.9 3.7 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 8.0 8.7 8.0 2.7 75.6 70.9 3.0 5.4 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.2 4.4 2.1 70.4 65.7 -1.1 -0.3 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.4 6.2 2.6 75.2 70.7 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 6.4 7.5 5.0 2.1 72.2 66.6 2.5 4.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.9 6.2 7.1 2.3 71.5 68.4 1.7 3.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.2 1.4 5.0 1.7 64.7 63.0 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 8.1 9.1 7.1 2.6 75.2 70.5 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.4 6.8 6.0 2.2 69.8 66.7 2.8 4.9 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.6 8.8 6.6 2.7 76.5 71.0 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.6 8.9 5.7 2.2 71.5 67.6 2.8 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.5 8.1 6.3 2.6 75.9 70.4 3.4 5.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.7 7.7 7.5 2.5 70.3 67.9 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.5 5.5 5.6 1.8 69.5 65.1 3.4 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.8 8.7 6.1 2.7 77.5 71.2 3.8 5.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.4 6.8 2.1 68.6 66.4 1.7 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.3 4.6 5.9 2.1 68.5 66.0 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.8 7.5 2.4 70.6 68.6 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.0 3.8 1.3 56.9 59.4 0.8 2.6 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 7.9 8.5 7.7 2.7 76.0 71.3 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.9 5.6 7.0 2.0 67.6 66.3 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.9 7.8 2.6 72.6 69.3 3.0 4.2 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 7.9 8.6 7.4 2.5 73.1 68.9 3.6 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.4 7.2 6.1 2.3 74.7 68.9 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.0 5.2 2.1 72.7 69.0 3.0 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.7 8.5 6.9 2.4 76.2 70.0 3.1 5.3 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.4 5.2 2.1 71.5 66.1 3.6 4.5 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.1 3.2 5.1 1.8 64.6 63.9 0.4 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.5 6.5 7.3 2.4 71.4 68.9 2.1 4.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------