***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 3.2 4.4 -2.2 27.3 29.9 3.7 5.7 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.3 4.7 -1.9 29.6 33.1 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.1 3.6 5.2 -1.7 30.7 35.2 3.9 6.3 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -0.9 -1.5 1.5 -2.4 26.1 29.2 -0.3 2.7 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.8 -2.6 26.5 27.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 2.1 0.8 0.6 -4.1 14.8 17.5 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.5 3.1 4.4 -2.0 28.8 31.1 3.3 4.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -2.1 -2.9 1.8 -3.1 21.4 23.6 -1.0 1.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 4.1 4.2 -2.1 29.1 31.8 5.0 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.2 2.8 -2.7 25.6 28.2 4.1 5.8 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.4 3.4 -2.6 26.7 28.7 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.3 2.4 2.3 -2.9 21.6 24.2 4.2 7.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 2.8 2.6 2.5 -3.6 18.5 20.9 4.3 6.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 7.6 3.7 5.0 -1.4 35.2 39.3 3.6 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.5 4.5 -1.0 34.9 38.6 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 3.5 3.2 2.2 -3.2 21.0 23.6 4.7 7.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.1 2.8 4.4 -1.7 30.3 33.5 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.4 2.4 -2.8 25.1 28.3 3.3 4.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 3.3 4.9 -1.7 30.2 34.7 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 -0.7 -1.6 0.5 -3.6 18.1 21.2 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.9 5.0 -1.9 30.4 33.8 4.3 6.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.4 4.9 -1.4 30.8 36.0 3.5 5.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.9 3.8 5.1 -1.5 31.6 36.9 3.8 5.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.9 3.9 4.7 -1.8 32.2 36.5 3.9 7.1 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.9 3.2 -2.7 24.7 26.9 3.9 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 3.4 3.0 1.3 -3.7 15.7 18.3 5.0 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.7 3.6 -2.7 24.6 26.4 4.2 5.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.4 2.9 -1.9 30.7 33.6 4.9 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.8 -3.0 23.2 25.9 1.6 3.9 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.8 3.1 4.7 -2.0 28.3 32.2 3.5 5.0 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------