***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 1.5 69.7 68.1 -1.6 -1.1 -0.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.7 0.2 1.3 67.4 66.6 -2.4 -1.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.4 67.5 67.6 -0.5 0.0 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -4.4 -4.3 -2.1 1.4 68.6 67.2 -5.8 -5.1 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 1.3 65.8 66.1 -2.5 -1.8 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 -1.6 -1.9 -3.9 1.0 60.8 61.9 -3.2 -2.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 1.3 68.5 66.2 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -6.0 -5.9 -3.8 0.8 57.6 58.3 -7.1 -6.3 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 1.4 66.5 66.5 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 -1.0 -0.8 -2.9 1.0 61.5 61.5 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.9 -2.2 1.2 64.3 64.2 -2.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -1.7 -3.0 1.0 60.1 61.5 -3.2 -2.3 -1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -1.0 -2.9 1.2 64.1 63.9 -2.6 -1.9 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 -0.1 -0.3 -1.7 1.2 62.3 63.5 -1.7 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 1.6 73.0 70.6 -3.2 -1.9 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 -0.2 -0.5 -2.7 1.2 63.5 64.3 -1.8 -0.9 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -1.1 0.2 1.2 67.0 65.3 -2.6 -1.7 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 -2.3 -2.4 -3.4 1.1 62.4 62.2 -4.3 -3.0 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 1.3 66.1 66.5 -2.1 -1.5 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -5.7 -5.3 -4.7 0.8 60.7 59.1 -6.8 -6.0 -5.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 1.5 70.4 68.5 -2.1 -1.3 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 1.2 64.1 64.8 -2.5 -1.7 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 1.2 64.9 65.4 -2.3 -1.9 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.8 1.2 64.1 64.8 -2.7 -1.5 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 1.4 68.0 67.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -1.4 -3.0 1.1 61.4 62.8 -2.7 -1.6 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 1.4 68.4 67.1 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 -1.7 -2.3 -1.8 1.5 70.2 68.5 -3.4 -2.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.7 -3.7 -4.2 0.8 58.4 58.6 -4.9 -4.0 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 1.3 67.5 66.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------