***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 -1.0 -2.2 27.2 29.4 -1.4 -0.3 1.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -1.1 -2.0 29.1 31.6 -1.8 -0.4 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -2.2 27.7 29.8 -0.3 1.0 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -2.7 -6.1 -3.1 -2.0 27.6 30.2 -5.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 -2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 22.7 24.8 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 -5.0 -5.9 -6.1 -3.7 15.0 17.8 -2.6 -1.3 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 -1.1 -2.1 29.6 31.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -7.8 -8.3 -6.6 -4.5 13.3 15.4 -6.4 -5.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6 -2.3 26.3 28.1 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 -5.1 -3.6 18.7 20.6 -1.9 -1.4 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -3.8 -3.2 19.3 21.8 -2.2 -1.1 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 -4.9 -5.8 -5.5 -4.2 14.4 16.6 -2.6 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 -4.4 -5.0 -4.8 -3.6 15.8 18.9 -2.5 -1.3 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.2 -2.6 25.2 27.0 -1.0 -0.2 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.7 40.1 40.5 -2.4 -1.4 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -4.6 -3.5 16.6 19.0 -1.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -2.2 -1.0 -1.7 31.7 34.2 -2.0 -0.7 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 -4.1 -4.4 -5.1 -3.2 20.4 22.5 -3.3 -1.9 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1 28.1 30.4 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -8.3 -8.6 -7.3 -4.5 15.1 16.8 -6.9 -5.1 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -1.1 -2.0 28.9 30.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -2.2 -2.2 -0.9 -1.8 30.0 32.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -2.3 26.1 27.9 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -2.8 -2.3 25.9 28.7 -1.6 -1.2 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -2.0 -2.3 -1.7 -2.6 24.8 26.9 -1.6 -0.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 -3.9 -4.5 -5.1 -3.9 15.6 17.4 -2.1 -0.4 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 -2.5 26.3 28.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -3.7 -2.3 -1.6 33.3 34.3 -3.7 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 -6.3 -7.0 -7.0 -4.3 15.4 17.6 -4.5 -3.2 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 27.7 29.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------