***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 40.0 39.4 52.8 111.1 62.3 57.5 24.8 31.0 42.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 38.2 45.7 49.1 115.6 65.9 60.5 21.6 33.3 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 45.1 58.1 52.6 110.5 61.7 57.5 30.9 38.9 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 53.1 49.0 50.0 91.8 47.7 46.6 31.8 49.3 55.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 49.0 45.7 53.2 98.5 53.1 50.7 34.4 43.8 55.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 42.6 37.9 47.5 95.7 50.2 48.4 29.6 37.8 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.5 49.0 47.5 113.8 65.6 59.6 21.2 37.4 49.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 64.4 60.4 55.7 97.0 52.5 50.1 50.6 60.0 67.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 35.9 36.3 55.3 102.4 56.3 53.5 26.8 32.5 44.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 45.2 44.7 57.7 101.5 55.5 52.9 36.9 42.0 47.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 44.7 43.2 52.7 98.5 53.0 51.0 35.2 40.9 48.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 45.6 43.0 51.0 96.4 51.7 49.6 35.3 41.7 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 47.7 44.7 53.8 99.2 54.3 51.0 38.7 42.8 58.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 60.0 60.9 62.6 107.9 62.0 56.5 47.4 56.0 61.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 32.0 41.5 44.4 84.0 45.7 42.8 28.5 45.4 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 46.1 41.1 50.8 97.7 52.3 50.0 27.3 39.8 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 50.7 45.6 46.6 113.4 64.9 60.3 27.3 33.3 46.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 43.5 40.9 60.6 103.3 54.6 53.4 35.4 39.5 45.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 39.2 54.0 50.8 116.3 66.0 60.8 25.5 33.2 54.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 55.4 49.1 68.4 95.8 50.7 49.1 33.8 48.9 64.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 41.0 41.5 54.0 104.1 58.6 54.1 31.1 36.3 49.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 51.1 54.9 50.5 117.4 68.2 62.1 27.7 38.3 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 39.5 50.0 53.2 114.0 65.0 60.0 24.6 33.8 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 52.3 50.4 58.3 106.5 57.9 55.1 44.4 49.7 52.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 43.6 44.8 56.0 103.2 57.2 53.3 28.5 39.1 50.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 46.7 41.6 49.4 92.7 49.3 47.2 30.7 41.7 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 40.8 36.9 54.8 110.2 60.9 56.9 27.7 32.7 49.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.2 32.5 45.6 88.2 45.4 44.5 27.5 34.8 53.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 73.6 71.0 63.5 101.7 54.1 52.0 63.4 69.4 75.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 42.1 50.5 50.2 115.0 65.5 59.8 23.1 36.7 51.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------