***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.9 11.7 100.8 62.8 50.6 3.8 6.4 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.1 14.4 10.0 95.7 61.0 48.4 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.8 14.5 11.2 97.6 61.9 49.6 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.2 11.8 93.8 60.0 48.2 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.4 12.5 99.2 60.5 49.2 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.3 11.1 94.2 60.2 49.0 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 14.6 9.9 96.6 59.3 49.1 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.1 16.3 13.5 100.7 60.1 50.5 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.7 13.1 100.6 60.8 50.1 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.2 13.5 100.2 59.8 50.3 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.9 12.2 100.4 60.9 50.3 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.1 12.2 101.7 60.3 50.8 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.2 12.5 101.3 61.2 50.5 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 17.2 13.6 94.6 58.6 49.1 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.2 10.7 90.7 62.1 47.4 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.0 12.0 100.8 61.3 50.6 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.3 9.7 94.7 58.3 48.5 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.3 14.3 101.1 61.3 51.4 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.6 10.2 95.9 60.9 48.4 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.8 14.3 18.3 105.2 62.4 51.9 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.7 11.6 12.4 99.1 63.3 49.7 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.3 10.5 99.2 59.8 49.5 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.0 11.0 96.3 60.1 48.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.4 13.0 98.0 60.8 50.4 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.0 16.5 13.0 98.6 61.2 49.6 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.6 11.9 99.7 62.2 50.0 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.0 12.3 100.7 62.3 50.5 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.4 10.8 92.0 61.3 47.8 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 18.0 15.5 103.5 60.7 52.1 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 15.9 10.4 97.6 61.5 49.5 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------