***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.2 10.2 90.2 55.5 48.4 4.6 7.9 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.9 9.2 91.4 56.0 47.3 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.7 9.7 86.4 54.4 47.1 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 12.7 8.3 63.6 49.1 42.3 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.7 8.6 65.1 47.4 41.4 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.9 9.7 6.5 51.5 39.7 35.0 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.6 8.9 90.1 54.0 47.1 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.7 14.2 8.1 57.4 41.5 37.3 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.3 9.4 69.2 49.4 42.9 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.5 9.1 64.7 46.6 40.3 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.3 7.8 60.1 44.1 39.2 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.6 8.7 7.3 55.7 40.4 36.5 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.4 11.4 7.4 55.9 41.2 36.3 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.0 10.8 80.7 52.4 43.9 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 8.7 7.2 56.7 50.1 41.1 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.6 7.2 56.4 42.8 37.7 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.9 9.0 93.9 57.0 48.0 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.6 10.0 69.6 46.9 41.2 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.9 9.4 91.2 57.1 47.7 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 10.9 10.8 60.1 42.5 37.6 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.2 9.5 75.3 50.3 44.9 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.6 96.9 58.3 49.1 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 9.6 88.3 56.4 47.5 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.0 10.1 77.5 51.1 43.6 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.6 10.3 79.3 52.3 46.2 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 5.5 7.6 7.0 52.5 37.5 33.7 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.8 10.7 90.2 56.3 48.4 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 8.3 7.1 56.3 46.6 39.5 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 15.6 10.5 68.9 45.3 40.1 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.0 9.5 92.0 55.7 47.7 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------