***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.8 11.9 98.0 60.7 50.6 3.4 5.1 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.7 9.1 10.7 101.4 61.8 51.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.9 12.4 97.7 61.3 51.0 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.2 13.0 14.2 98.0 58.2 50.2 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.7 14.1 94.6 57.4 48.7 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.4 12.9 97.5 61.5 52.4 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.4 10.3 100.3 62.4 51.2 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.7 18.9 13.8 90.4 56.1 49.1 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 13.7 95.1 58.9 49.7 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.4 14.2 93.2 57.6 49.5 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.8 12.5 14.7 99.8 60.8 51.5 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.7 13.1 92.0 58.0 49.9 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.2 13.9 97.5 58.2 51.8 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.4 14.5 94.0 57.5 50.3 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.9 13.9 101.8 62.3 53.2 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 13.8 100.7 60.5 52.0 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.9 10.2 99.9 63.6 52.1 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.2 14.0 89.6 57.2 48.6 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.0 11.0 99.8 61.3 51.3 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.4 16.4 85.7 54.2 48.0 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.6 13.3 97.5 61.1 50.6 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.7 12.5 10.9 100.9 65.3 53.5 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.6 8.7 11.7 94.8 59.2 49.7 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.8 13.9 93.8 58.1 49.8 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.8 13.5 94.1 55.9 48.8 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 13.0 92.4 56.9 50.2 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.3 12.6 98.5 59.8 50.4 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.4 13.7 100.3 61.0 51.7 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.2 22.5 15.1 89.8 56.9 49.2 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.0 11.0 99.8 61.5 50.5 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------