***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 13.1 15.3 19.0 152.4 75.6 71.0 4.3 7.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 13.0 15.0 19.3 168.1 79.8 74.1 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 14.9 18.0 19.3 158.2 77.4 72.3 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.8 15.7 109.4 65.7 59.9 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.2 16.4 18.0 135.6 73.7 66.8 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.0 12.1 17.0 142.1 73.5 66.3 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 12.6 14.9 18.4 162.3 78.5 73.1 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 18.0 21.7 20.3 138.4 74.0 67.4 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.0 15.2 19.0 147.9 77.7 69.7 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 15.2 17.9 20.8 149.1 77.8 69.9 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.2 13.7 18.0 132.1 73.8 66.1 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.8 18.4 135.6 73.5 66.8 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.8 17.8 20.0 139.0 74.1 67.3 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 21.2 28.9 23.7 160.1 80.4 72.2 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.6 6.0 12.5 85.9 57.8 54.6 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.7 11.0 17.8 130.3 71.8 65.0 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 14.4 17.5 17.7 160.6 77.9 72.5 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.4 17.0 22.3 154.0 78.6 71.4 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 15.1 19.3 20.2 172.6 81.6 75.1 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 15.8 14.0 22.9 132.8 70.9 65.4 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.4 18.7 144.2 74.0 69.0 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.7 19.3 19.4 166.7 81.9 74.2 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 14.9 20.4 21.0 173.1 81.9 75.0 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 18.8 21.5 21.4 156.0 79.1 71.7 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 12.2 14.6 19.2 140.0 73.8 68.0 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.2 17.5 124.8 69.3 63.3 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.0 15.1 19.1 149.5 74.9 70.2 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.2 14.0 102.2 63.9 58.3 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 20.0 24.0 22.3 144.6 75.9 69.1 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 11.8 14.5 19.3 165.4 79.0 73.4 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------