***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.8 6.1 5.4 2.0 66.2 64.8 2.3 4.2 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 6.4 5.1 5.6 2.2 68.5 66.1 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.9 7.9 5.8 2.0 67.0 64.9 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 2.1 1.7 2.7 1.7 67.1 62.9 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.0 6.2 3.8 1.7 66.4 62.8 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.8 6.0 3.6 1.9 67.4 64.0 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.3 5.5 2.1 68.3 66.0 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.3 0.1 3.7 1.7 65.6 63.3 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 8.3 4.8 1.8 66.2 63.4 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.7 7.8 4.3 1.8 66.0 63.4 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.3 3.9 1.8 67.3 63.6 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.2 3.8 1.8 66.1 63.7 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 7.2 6.0 3.5 1.8 64.9 64.0 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 7.9 8.2 5.5 2.0 68.5 64.1 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.7 3.5 1.7 64.0 62.5 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.0 3.6 1.8 67.2 64.0 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.8 4.8 5.6 2.1 68.8 66.1 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.3 4.9 4.5 1.8 65.8 63.3 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.0 5.8 2.1 68.2 65.7 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.0 3.5 2.9 1.6 64.5 62.2 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.7 8.3 5.2 1.9 66.7 63.6 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.2 4.8 5.6 2.0 67.9 65.4 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.7 6.0 6.1 2.1 67.7 65.2 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.3 8.1 5.3 1.9 67.3 64.2 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.1 5.4 3.9 1.8 68.6 64.3 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.5 3.3 1.7 66.6 64.5 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.8 7.1 5.0 2.0 67.6 65.0 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.5 6.1 3.1 1.8 66.2 62.9 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.4 3.8 4.0 1.7 64.5 62.8 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.5 5.5 2.1 67.8 65.9 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------