***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 4.9 0.9 58.1 58.4 1.9 3.4 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.0 4.9 1.0 60.4 60.2 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.2 5.3 1.1 60.0 58.8 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.0 58.3 57.4 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.7 3.5 1.1 59.6 57.8 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.0 3.1 1.0 57.7 56.8 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.0 4.9 1.0 58.6 60.0 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.4 0.1 3.7 1.4 62.1 59.5 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.6 4.5 1.3 60.3 58.5 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.8 4.2 1.4 62.1 59.2 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.0 3.5 1.1 60.2 58.0 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.4 3.5 1.2 59.9 58.2 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.5 3.1 1.0 57.7 56.8 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.7 5.3 1.5 61.7 59.8 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.3 3.0 0.8 58.8 56.3 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.3 3.1 1.0 59.1 57.1 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.2 5.0 1.0 59.0 60.8 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.6 4.4 1.6 63.8 59.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.1 5.1 1.1 60.3 60.0 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.3 2.7 3.2 1.7 63.5 60.7 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.6 4.9 1.1 59.6 58.4 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.0 4.9 1.0 57.8 60.3 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.8 5.5 1.2 59.7 59.9 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.9 5.1 1.5 62.3 59.7 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.1 3.5 1.0 58.8 58.2 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.2 3.0 1.0 58.5 57.7 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.7 4.4 0.9 58.5 58.1 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.8 2.7 0.9 59.2 56.9 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.8 3.2 4.0 1.6 63.1 59.8 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.4 4.9 1.0 59.6 59.6 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------