***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.8 5.5 0.7 57.5 55.1 2.4 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.8 5.6 0.7 57.7 55.8 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.6 5.7 0.6 56.8 54.6 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.5 0.2 2.3 0.2 53.3 52.2 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.8 3.6 0.2 53.4 52.3 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.9 2.8 0.1 50.3 51.3 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.6 4.8 5.5 0.7 56.2 55.3 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.5 0.1 3.0 0.2 50.3 51.9 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.7 4.5 0.3 53.7 52.8 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.7 3.7 0.3 52.2 52.3 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.1 3.9 0.2 51.9 52.3 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.1 3.4 0.2 50.1 52.1 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.5 3.7 0.2 50.4 51.8 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.5 5.2 0.7 57.9 55.3 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.4 3.6 -0.1 46.3 50.1 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.0 3.5 0.2 51.4 52.4 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.5 5.4 0.7 57.2 55.4 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.2 3.6 0.3 53.7 53.0 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.0 5.7 0.7 57.0 55.9 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 2.7 2.3 0.2 49.5 52.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.9 5.2 0.4 55.1 53.4 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 5.5 0.6 57.2 55.3 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.5 5.8 0.7 55.2 55.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.0 5.0 0.5 55.9 54.2 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.4 4.2 0.5 54.8 54.0 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 3.1 0.1 47.6 51.0 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.9 5.1 0.6 56.4 54.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.0 2.9 0.0 51.0 51.1 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.1 2.2 3.1 0.2 51.6 52.3 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.1 5.6 0.7 56.9 55.4 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------