***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 6.7 7.6 8.5 1.4 60.8 60.4 4.6 6.4 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 6.9 7.3 8.9 1.9 69.3 66.7 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 7.4 7.6 9.2 1.7 64.4 63.0 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 3.4 3.3 5.3 1.1 57.2 58.7 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 7.4 7.8 7.0 1.1 55.6 57.2 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.2 6.7 5.4 0.2 47.0 50.4 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 48 52 100 6.4 6.7 8.5 1.6 66.2 64.2 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.0 2.1 6.2 0.9 53.1 56.6 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 8.2 8.1 7.6 0.9 55.4 55.5 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 7.1 6.8 7.0 1.0 54.3 56.3 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 7.6 7.5 7.4 1.0 54.9 56.2 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.4 8.8 6.6 1.0 55.6 56.9 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.6 7.5 1.0 54.7 55.9 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 8.0 8.2 9.3 2.3 65.8 66.7 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.6 5.5 -0.2 47.7 47.7 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 8.1 7.9 6.9 1.0 55.3 56.2 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.5 8.5 1.9 71.1 68.3 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 5.3 5.2 6.7 1.0 53.7 56.7 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.4 9.0 1.9 68.8 66.4 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 5.8 5.6 5.4 0.9 53.2 56.4 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 7.0 7.4 8.6 1.3 59.6 58.9 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.0 7.7 8.7 2.0 72.0 68.9 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 7.2 7.2 9.1 2.0 68.1 65.8 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 8.1 8.2 8.6 1.6 61.1 61.8 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 5.8 6.1 7.6 1.2 56.5 58.1 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.3 5.7 0.4 48.1 51.3 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 6.8 7.0 8.2 1.2 57.8 58.9 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 7.0 6.8 5.6 0.6 54.2 54.1 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 5.3 5.0 6.0 0.7 51.3 54.2 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 6.8 7.3 8.8 1.7 66.6 64.3 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------