***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -0.7 0.2 0.4 49.2 53.2 -1.9 -0.6 1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -1.0 0.0 0.3 50.4 52.4 -2.7 -1.0 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 -1.3 1.0 0.1 0.3 49.1 52.5 -1.0 1.0 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -7.4 -5.9 -2.7 -0.1 45.7 49.9 -6.5 -5.4 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -1.5 -1.9 0.0 45.5 50.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -2.5 -3.9 -0.2 44.9 49.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -1.1 0.0 0.3 48.3 52.1 -3.0 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -7.8 -5.8 -3.8 -0.1 45.1 49.8 -7.0 -5.7 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.1 46.0 51.4 -2.2 -0.7 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -0.9 -3.1 -0.1 44.9 50.3 -2.4 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -0.8 -2.4 0.0 44.8 50.4 -2.5 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -2.3 -3.0 0.0 46.3 50.8 -3.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 -0.4 -0.9 -3.0 -0.1 46.3 50.5 -2.3 -0.7 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 0.1 -0.4 -1.6 0.4 49.5 54.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -2.7 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1 44.8 49.3 -3.0 -0.7 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -1.0 -2.8 0.0 45.3 50.4 -2.2 -0.4 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 51.2 52.0 -3.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -4.4 -3.2 -3.6 -0.1 44.6 51.0 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.3 51.0 52.4 -2.1 -0.9 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -7.9 -5.0 -4.8 -0.2 44.0 49.6 -6.8 -4.7 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -0.9 -0.5 0.2 49.2 52.0 -2.5 -0.8 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -2.8 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 51.4 52.5 -2.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 51.2 52.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -2.8 -1.2 -1.9 0.1 45.2 52.4 -2.5 -0.7 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -1.0 -0.6 0.4 49.2 52.6 -2.4 -1.0 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -1.6 -3.2 -0.1 46.6 50.6 -2.6 -1.1 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -0.7 0.0 0.5 50.0 53.6 -2.0 -0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -2.0 -2.4 -0.1 44.7 49.4 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -6.3 -4.5 -4.4 -0.3 43.1 48.8 -5.3 -4.2 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -0.9 0.1 0.3 49.2 52.6 -2.3 -0.8 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------