***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 1.1 1.9 3.0 1.5 64.1 63.8 -1.8 1.0 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 0.9 1.2 2.9 1.9 69.5 68.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.6 64.2 64.3 -0.4 1.0 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -2.5 0.0 1.0 56.3 57.3 -5.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 -0.9 -0.3 1.5 1.4 61.9 61.8 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.4 0.8 56.2 55.0 -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 0.8 1.0 2.9 1.9 69.7 67.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -4.2 -3.8 -0.5 1.4 61.7 61.1 -5.9 -4.4 -3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 -0.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 59.6 58.9 -1.5 -0.3 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 -1.0 0.3 -0.1 1.4 61.1 61.2 -2.1 -1.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 -0.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 60.1 60.5 -2.0 -0.9 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 -1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.3 61.8 60.3 -2.8 -1.4 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 -0.7 0.6 0.5 1.7 63.8 63.6 -2.5 -0.9 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 71.6 70.4 -1.0 0.4 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 -0.8 41.1 41.7 -2.3 -1.2 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.5 61.7 62.0 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 0.8 1.1 3.1 2.3 75.1 72.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 1.8 62.6 64.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 48 52 100 0.7 1.2 2.8 1.8 69.0 67.7 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 -5.2 -3.3 -0.8 1.8 63.4 65.0 -7.2 -5.8 -3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 -0.8 0.7 2.4 1.5 63.0 63.4 -2.0 -1.0 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 0.7 1.4 3.3 2.3 75.8 73.0 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 -0.1 0.7 2.4 1.7 65.8 65.8 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 0.4 0.3 1.5 2.1 68.5 68.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.5 63.9 63.0 -1.6 -0.2 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 -0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 59.3 58.6 -2.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 0.9 1.5 3.0 1.7 65.8 65.5 -2.3 0.7 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 -1.6 -2.0 -0.4 0.3 49.1 50.7 -3.4 -2.0 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 -2.4 -1.8 -1.1 1.5 59.9 61.4 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 1.0 1.3 2.9 1.7 66.8 65.8 -1.9 -0.2 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------